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White House moves towards larger stimulus package, Trump's victory chances dim, and Hurricane Delta bears down on oil-producing Gulf.

Something bigger

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that President Donald Trump now wants a comprehensive stimulus package -- in a reversal from his position on Tuesday when Trump abruptly ended negotiations. But with opposition remaining in Congress to more spending, time is very tight for any legislation to reach the president's desk before the end of October. Another obstacle to successful outcome: Both Trump and Pelosi are publicly questioning each other's mental stability. Democrats are set to announce a bill today that would set up a commission to evaluate using the 25th amendment which can remove a sitting president from office. 


Trump is aiming to return to the campaign trail next week, kicking off with a possible event in Pennsylvania as early as Monday, say people familiar with the matter. The president trails Joe Biden by an average of 9.7 percentage points nationally according to the RealClearPolitics average of polling. His rejection of a virtual presidential debate is likely to make the job of turning the tide more difficult, Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Bloomberg Television. Investors are busy dusting off their 2016 Trump playbooks, but this time they are betting he will lose. 


Oil is set for its biggest weekly gain since June as Hurricane Delta shuts 92% of crude output in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm, which regained Category 3 status as it moved over the warm waters in the region, is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana later today. It will be "life threatening" and is expected to dump as much as 15 inches of rain on the area over the next two days. Delta is the record 10th tropical storm or hurricane to hit the U.S. this year as the country is battered by the effects of a changing climate

Markets mixed

Global equities are edging higher this morning as investors hold onto optimism for a U.S. stimulus package. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.5% lower as the yen strengthened. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with a host of companies raising their outlooks. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small gain at the open, with shares in Xilinx Inc. surging pre-market after reports Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is in talks to buy the chipmaker in a deal valued at $30 billion. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.765% and gold rallied. 

Coming up...

While all eyes in the U.S. will be concentrated on stimulus developments, north of the border in Canada the focus will be on the September jobs report at 8:30 a.m., which is expected to show 150,000 positions added in the month. Nancy Pelosi holds a press conference at 10:15 a.m., President Trump hosts the Rush Limbaugh show from 12:00 p.m. and Joe Biden is on the campaign trail in Las Vegas. The October WASDE report is at 12:00 p.m. and the latest Baker Hughes rig count is at 1:00 p.m.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Emily's interested in this morning

Sales of both investment-grade and high-yield corporate debt hit full-year records in the third quarter in the race to capitalize on Fed support that may know limits.

Pimco global economic advisor Joachim Fels said investors should know that policymakers can't shield them from losses if a pandemic-fueled corporate borrowing spree spurs a surge in defaults. "Central banks cannot protect investors from defaults and capital impairment,'' Fels said in the firm's October secular outlook.

After all, despite investors' enthusiasm for the Fed backstop, which has helped drive spreads sharply tighter over recent months, the Fed hasn't proven as ready as some might have hoped to leap into the fray at the first signs of a shakeout. The central bank kept to the sidelines as spreads widened at the end of last month.

"Despite being a major milestone when it was first announced, the corporate credit facility has not had to do too much heavy lifting in terms of actually purchasing bonds," wrote Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons.

This isn't news for the many investors whose appetite for corporate credit appears to have soured over the past month. Investors pulled cash out of exchange-traded funds tracking corporate bonds in September for the first time since the pandemic first upended markets in late February.

Follow Bloomberg's Emily Barrett on Twitter at @notthatECB

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